Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 56.9%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 5, 24, 12:58 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
$100B AI training cluster before 2029?
Manifold MarketsChina will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2030
Manifold Markets100GW AI training run before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner estimates that the largest training clusters will cost over one trillion dollars around 2030.
- Clarifications:
- $1T worth of computers and associated data center infrastructure (e.g. building, cooling, networking; does not include the cost of the power plant)
- Computers must be networked together and training one model.
- They do not need to synchronize weights at each gradient step.
- Value of data centers will be estimated with reasonable depreciation.