Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 57.5%
Forecasters
51
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleNov 24, 22, 11:09 PM UTCDec 31, 59, 11:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Will we find evidence that we are living in a simulation? I will resolve this market if we find strong evidence in the future that we are living in a simulation.
- If its not obvious in 2060 I will either do a rough literature search, or pay someone else to do it (at least 5-10 hours) and then resolve the market with the probability that reflects my best estimate.
- I will not trade in this market.
- I will be 59 by then, so likely still alive in most future branches that matter.
- If I die, this market will resolve ambigous.
- Dec 17, 8:26pm: Is the simulation hypothesis true? → Do we live in a simulation?
