Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 73.7% as of October 26, 2026.

When does Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy? resolve?

Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy? is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2027.

How is Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: LLMs can distinguish their own output from the output of different LLMs and they have a preference for their own output, so it's technically feasible to manipulate the leaderboard by throwing an LLM at the chatbot arena to upvote its own completions.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google-3.9pt88.7%
• Anthropic+1.8pt10.3%
• OpenAI+0.1pt1%

+18 more outcomes

Total Vol

$3.6M

24h Vol

$154.2K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt28%
• $2.0–$2.25T+3.8pt22%
• $1.5–$1.75T-2.2pt17%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+8.0pt83%
• December 15,+9.0pt82%
• November 30,-2.0pt60%

+9 more outcomes

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+1.2pt55.5%
• Gemini-3.4pt31.8%
• ChatGPT-0.2pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+3.0pt53.5%
• Google-3.0pt36.4%
• OpenAI-0.3pt6.1%

+12 more outcomes

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 202794%
• Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt92%
• Before Feb 1, 202788.5%

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• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on?
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• What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
• When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?