Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 92.7%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 26 minutes ago
Aug 1, 23, 8:42 AM UTCDec 31, 43, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiSouth Africa Annual Inflation 2026
PolymarketZimbabwe vs South Africa
KalshiRules
I've occasionally seen some nazi-adjacent people express concerns about the racial situation in South Africa.
- This includes sharing a documentary where some white farmers were being attacked, and more recently, sharing a video of the third-largest South African political party singing that people should kill the whites.
- However, I know nothing about South African politics and very little about South African history, so for all I know, this might be taken out of context.
- This is what the mainstream media claims, with the white farmers getting attacked apparently employing black people who also get attacked, and the song about killing white people being some traditional song that came up in the context of apartheid.
- Resolution criteria
- If by the end of 2043, an unambiguous sign of serious attempted white genocide is observed, this market resolves YES.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Is a potential white genocide brewing in South Africa??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Is a potential white genocide brewing in South Africa? resolve?
- Is a potential white genocide brewing in South Africa? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2043.
- How is Is a potential white genocide brewing in South Africa? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I've occasionally seen some nazi-adjacent people express concerns about the racial situation in South Africa.