Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2027 66.3%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleDec 12, 25, 11:01 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves based on the automation rate reported on the Remote Labor Index leaderboard, defined as the percentage of projects where an AI's deliverable is judged at least as good as the human standard—whether a "reasonable client" would accept the work.
- The market resolves to the year in which the RLI automation rate first reaches or exceeds 80%, as reported on the official leaderboard at https://scale.com/leaderboard/rli.
- If the automation rate never reaches 80% by the end of 2030, the market resolves to "the named outcome."
- The Remote Labor Index is a benchmark that empirically measures the capability of AI agents to perform real-world, economically valuable remote work by evaluating AI agents on a broad, multi-sector collection of end-to-end projects sourced from professional freelance platforms, providing a direct comparison of AI agent performance against professional human-produced deliverables.
- As of the latest evaluation, the maximum automation rate across frontier AI agent frameworks is 2.5% on RLI projects.