Current community forecast
2025-2034 30.7%+0.2ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
22
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.2 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Mar 23, 25, 2:56 PM UTCJan 1, 01, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRules
The RSA-2048 challenge number is a 617-digit semiprime published by RSA Laboratories.
- Factoring it with a general-purpose quantum computer (i.e., one that runs Shor’s algorithm at scale) would mark the end of today’s form of public-key cryptography.
- Resolution criteria
- Evidence required – A peer-reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal showing that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA-2048 challenge number.
- Quantum-computer build timing – The bracket corresponding to the year in which the demonstration is published resolves "YES" and the market closes immediately.
- Example: if the paper is dated 2035, the 2035-2039 bracket resolves "YES" and all others resolve "NO" based on the publication date.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.0pt94%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+15.3pt47%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $256.6K
- 24h Vol
- $140.5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2032+44.0pt92%
- Before 2028+44.0pt59%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number??
- Manifold Markets prices 2025-2034 at 31% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? resolve?
- In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2101.
- How is In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The RSA-2048 challenge number is a 617-digit semiprime published by RSA Laboratories.