In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
AIOne-Off4y
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Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:05 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 84.1%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 18 hours ago
StaleFeb 3, 23, 4:31 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
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See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the (note that I'm asking about the inverse of his 4th prediction).
- Resolution criteria from the post: "The AI will fail this task if there’s any kind of post I write that it can’t imitate - for example analyzing scientific data, or writing fiction, or reviewing books.
- It will fail this task it it writes fluently but says false things (at a rate higher than I do), eg if it makes up references.
- It doesn’t have to be able to coordinate complex multistep projects like the Book Review Contest".
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