Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 11:01 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 94.2%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 10, 26, 7:52 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will "Announcing RoastMyPost: LLMs Eval Blog Posts ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsIn what years there will be blog posts at https://blog.gitbutler.com/
Manifold MarketsIn 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
Manifold MarketsIn what years there will be blog posts at https://blog.val.town/
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
One post about AI, one about whatever I want.