In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
AIOne-Off1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 82.2%
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Updated 8 minutes ago
Feb 20, 23, 10:45 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Resolves positively if there is an AI which can succeed at a wide variety of computer games (eg shooters, strategy games, flight simulators).
- Its programmers can have a short amount of time (days, not months) to connect it to the game.
- It doesn't get a chance to practice, and has to play at least as well as an amateur human who also hasn't gotten a chance to practice (this might be very badly) and improve at a rate not too far off from the rate at which the amateur human improves (one OOM is fine, just not millions of times slower).
- As long as it can do this over 50% of the time, it's okay if there are a few games it can't learn.