If there is AI Doom by 2030, the largest human casualties will be a result of...

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for If there is AI Doom by 2030, the largest human casualties will be a result of...?

Manifold Markets prices Bio-Risk at 45.6% as of October 25, 2026.

When does If there is AI Doom by 2030, the largest human casualties will be a result of... resolve?

If there is AI Doom by 2030, the largest human casualties will be a result of... is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.

How is If there is AI Doom by 2030, the largest human casualties will be a result of... settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If "the Humans are Dead", what killed them?

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POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+0.1pt92.9%
• Anthropic-1.4pt7.1%
• Alibaba0%

+18 more outcomes

Total Vol

$3.5M

24h Vol

$101.7K

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+7.3pt56.4%
• Gemini-5.9pt33.5%
• ChatGPT-0.8pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+3.0pt28%
• $1.5–$1.75T-3.3pt18%
• $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt18%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+2.0pt92.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202791.5%
• Before Feb 1, 202788.5%

KALSHI

OpenRouter AI token usage in October

• Above 675T tokens88%
• Above 600T tokens50%
• Above 650T tokens99.5%

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+4.0pt54.5%
• Google-4.0pt37.4%
• OpenAI+0.1pt6.1%

+12 more outcomes

• Top coding AI this month (Arena.ai)
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• OpenRouter token usage in Oct 19–25
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Anthropic IPO by which date?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• OpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?
• Best AI this week
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
• GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut?