At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
AIOne-Off8y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 54.8%
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221
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
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Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMar 14, 23, 8:29 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 8:00 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
If Eliezer believes that there's at least a 75% chance of an AI existential risk coming to pass within the next 50 years, this resolves YES.
- (Other interpretations of p(doom) don't matter.)
- I'll resolve the market based on public statements from them in the previous and subsequent few months.
- Eliezer doesn't like putting explicit probabilities on this, so I'll attempt to infer their beliefs from their more subjective statements.
- Resolves N/A in the event that Eliezer is no longer alive/conscious or AI doom has already occurred.
