If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?
AI1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastPalantir 16.6%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
85
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.2 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 21, 26, 5:44 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Clarifications:
- If there are multiple events where an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by end of 2027, the market will resolve to the AI company responsible for the first such event.
- If no AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by end of 2027, this market will resolve to N/A (not to a "no event" option).
- The market is not limited to LLMs only.
- Other AI companies such as Anduril or Palantir are also eligible for resolution.
- Responsibility determination involves judgment calls by the creator.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame??
- Manifold Markets prices Palantir at 17% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame? resolve?
- If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Clarifications: