Who will release the first model to be credibly accused of being responsible for at least 100 deaths?
TechOne-OffManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastPalantir 42.4%Leader of 18 outcomes
Forecasters
29
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
Rules
Credible accusations must be made or linked to in the comments to count for resolution.
- Once a credible accusation is posted, the question will resolve a month later, to give time for other accusations to surface.
- Deaths caused through any causal mechanism count, as long as they aren't too butterfly-effect-y.
- They must be specific deaths traced to the model.
- Feel free to ask about specific scenarios and I'll answer whether they count.
- Rulings: 10-3-2023: If there are multiple listed organizations responsible for training the model (e.g. one organization did pretraining and the other did fine-tuning), it resolves to the organization that spent the most compute directly on training (for current models, this only counts the compute costs of the forward and backward passes).
