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How many years between AI winning IMO and Putnam?

One-OffAI Science74y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

0 84.4%+37.4pt

Leader of 4 outcomes

Forecasters

14

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 26 minutes ago

Oct 28, 23, 12:44 PMDec 31, 00, 10:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Putnam first12%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

How many Putnam competitions will AI not win after winning IMO and before winning its first Putnam?

Winning a competition means getting an equal or greater score than the top human participating.
Only competitions after market creation count.
The AI has to be under the same time constraints as the participants.
Allowed scoring is either just as humans (text input and human-scored text output) or it can get formalized input and have formally verified output, then a solution gets full score if it's correct and minimum score otherwise.
Resolves N/A at close date if not resolved by that time.

Volume trend

$843

Jul 194d of dataJul 28

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Rules

How many Putnam competitions will AI not win after winning IMO and before winning its first Putnam?

Winning a competition means getting an equal or greater score than the top human participating.
Only competitions after market creation count.
The AI has to be under the same time constraints as the participants.
Allowed scoring is either just as humans (text input and human-scored text output) or it can get formalized input and have formally verified output, then a solution gets full score if it's correct and minimum score otherwise.
Resolves N/A at close date if not resolved by that time.