Current community forecast
0 89%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-2.5 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleOct 28, 23, 12:44 PM UTCDec 31, 00, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)
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Manifold MarketsRules
How many Putnam competitions will AI not win after winning IMO and before winning its first Putnam?
- Winning a competition means getting an equal or greater score than the top human participating.
- Only competitions after market creation count.
- The AI has to be under the same time constraints as the participants.
- Allowed scoring is either just as humans (text input and human-scored text output) or it can get formalized input and have formally verified output, then a solution gets full score if it's correct and minimum score otherwise.
- Resolves N/A at close date if not resolved by that time.
