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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. AI
  3. First year a specific AI model/framework is named as Time's Person of the Year
Manifold Markets

First year a specific AI model/framework is named as Time's Person of the Year

AITechYearly4y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
2025 0.9%
Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters

5

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Stale
Jul 26, 25, 12:17 AMDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

20251%

Rules

"OpenAI" does not count

Manifold Markets
  • "AI" does not count
  • "GPT-5" would count, even as an amalgam of other models
  • "OpenAI ChatGPT Agent" would count
  • Anything messier than stated here may resolve subjectively

Related Markets

Manifold Markets

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

$6K
Google: 14.5%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

$2.2K
Yes: 6%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Best AI at the end of 2026?

Best AI at the end of 2026?

$485.2
Claude: 67%KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

$104.7
Yes: 53.4%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

$80
Yes: 89.5%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

$7.3
xAI: 16%KalshiKALSHI

Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,753.41+1.80%SolanaSOL$65.09+0.89%EthereumETH$1,656.01+1.16%DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+1.07%BNBBNB$597.04+1.44%XRPXRP$1.12-0.12%

Related News

Anthropic launches Claude Fable 5 with new safeguardsCrypto NewsEU orders Meta to restore WhatsApp access for rival AI chatbotsCrypto NewsJPMorgan plans longer-running AI agents for corporate workflows Crypto NewsOpenAI Files for IPO, Targets Valuation Up to $850BBlockchain.NewsOpenAI confidentially files to go public in the USCointelegraphNvidia expands South Korean AI partnerships across chips, cloud, and robotics Crypto News

Rules

"OpenAI" does not count

Manifold Markets
  • "AI" does not count
  • "GPT-5" would count, even as an amalgam of other models
  • "OpenAI ChatGPT Agent" would count
  • Anything messier than stated here may resolve subjectively