Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (99%)
Resolved: Sep 29, 2026, 1:43 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 30, 2026, 5:23 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes99%
No1%
Won
Lost
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if a competition called the 'Patriot Games' (or similar (decided by me)), is held between high school aged students in the USA during 2026.
- They are supposed to be one boy and girl from each of the 50 states and potentially US territories.
- The only thing I care about regarding this defining factor is that students from the 50 states could have competed, if they don't end up showing up because of logistics or something else I don't really care whether the final competition ends up being 50 boys and girls.
- to be clear: I am very doubtful this even happens in a remotely resembling fashion compared to what Trump has said, so I if something even close to what Trump has described or what the general public envisions happening, I will resolve YES.
- But I am highly skeptical it is even close.