Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 73%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleDec 12, 25, 6:34 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 6:34 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
I would resolve the market to "Yes" if GPT-5.2 used a different pretrain than GPT-5.1.
- This market may be resolved using insider knowledge that I hear from friends that work at OpenAI.
- In this case, there will be no public citations for my resolution.
- Trade at your own risk.