Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.2%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJan 4, 26, 1:12 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Apple releases a touchscreen Macbook by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsMacBook base model price on Black Friday
KalshiDoes GPT-5.2 use a different base model than GPT-5.1?
Manifold MarketsSlate Auto EV pickup base model launches below $27,500 excluding subsidies?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES iff Apple releases a base model iPhone 18 by December 31st, 2026.
- Must be available to purchase by at least some members of the public.
- Release of an iPhone 18 Pro or iPhone 18 Max models (or other variants other than the base model) will NOT suffice for this market to resolve YES.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Apple releases base model iPhone 18 in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Apple releases base model iPhone 18 in 2026? resolve?
- Apple releases base model iPhone 18 in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Apple releases base model iPhone 18 in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES iff Apple releases a base model iPhone 18 by December 31st, 2026.