Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo, nothing that creator considers wild happened 95%+45.0ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
20
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+45.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 14, 26, 5:48 PM UTCOct 14, 26, 5:45 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Rob Wiblin (@robertwiblin) on X
- This tweet suggest something wild just happened at Open AI.
- Fact or crap? What happened?
- Feel free to add other answer choices.
- I will not bet on this market as soon as I can figure out how to click the button that bans me from betting.
- Update 2026-09-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the RSI (Recursive Self-Improvement) option:
Open markets
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $73.6K
- 24h Vol
- $73.6K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-6.0pt81%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.3pt68.3%
- ChatGPT+0.2pt16.4%
- Gemini+0.1pt6.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.4pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $31.6K
- 24h Vol
- $31.6K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Did Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI??
- Manifold Markets prices No, nothing that creator considers wild happened at 95% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Did Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI? resolve?
- Did Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI? is scheduled to resolve on October 14, 2026.
- How is Did Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Rob Wiblin (@robertwiblin) on X