Current community forecast
Before May 2027 93.7%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+43.7 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleOct 28, 26, 10:03 PM UTCMay 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Claude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?
PolymarketWhen will the next Claude Fable be released?
Manifold MarketsWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5.6+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Fable's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketRules
The '+' means any version at or above 5.6 counts: if Anthropic skips 5.6 and releases Claude Fable 5.7 or Fable 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude Fable 5.6, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
