By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?

AI TechOne-Off9y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jun 4, 2026, 4:44 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3

Current community forecast

Before 2035-01-01 97.1%

Leader of 7 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 53 days ago

Stale

Feb 21, 24, 4:36 AMJan 2, 36, 7:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Before 2024-06-01

Before 2025-01-01

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Before 2027-01-0192%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

The GAIA benchmark (https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12983) aims to test for the next level of capability for AI agents.

Quoting from the paper: "GAIA proposes real-world questions that require a set of fundamental abilities such as reasoning, multi-modality handling, web browsing, and generally tool-use proficiency.
GAIA questions are conceptually simple for humans yet challenging for most advanced AIs: we show that human respondents obtain 92% vs. 15% for GPT-4 equipped with plugins."
This market will resolve based on when an AI system performs as well or better than humans on all 3 of the different levels of the benchmark.
I'll use the numbers from Table 4 in paper: 93.9% on level 1, 91.8% on level 2, and 87.3% on level 3.
(I'm using the conjunction of all 3 levels rather than the average to be somewhat conservative about this level being achieved.)

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By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?

AI TechOne-Off9y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jun 4, 2026, 4:44 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3

Current community forecast

Before 2035-01-01 97.1%

Leader of 7 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 53 days ago

Stale

Feb 21, 24, 4:36 AMJan 2, 36, 7:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Before 2024-06-01

Before 2025-01-01

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Before 2027-01-0192%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

The GAIA benchmark (https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12983) aims to test for the next level of capability for AI agents.

Quoting from the paper: "GAIA proposes real-world questions that require a set of fundamental abilities such as reasoning, multi-modality handling, web browsing, and generally tool-use proficiency.
GAIA questions are conceptually simple for humans yet challenging for most advanced AIs: we show that human respondents obtain 92% vs. 15% for GPT-4 equipped with plugins."
This market will resolve based on when an AI system performs as well or better than humans on all 3 of the different levels of the benchmark.
I'll use the numbers from Table 4 in paper: 93.9% on level 1, 91.8% on level 2, and 87.3% on level 3.
(I'm using the conjunction of all 3 levels rather than the average to be somewhat conservative about this level being achieved.)

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Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

$67.9K

↑$1.1T: 100%

POLYMARKET

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

$13.6K

1510: 100%

POLYMARKET

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By Dec 31, 2025: 74%