Current community forecast
Before 2035-01-01 97.1%Leader of 7 outcomes
Before 2035-01-01 97.1%Forecasters
26
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleFeb 21, 24, 4:36 AM UTCJan 2, 36, 7:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
The GAIA benchmark (https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12983) aims to test for the next level of capability for AI agents.
- Quoting from the paper: "GAIA proposes real-world questions that require a set of fundamental abilities such as reasoning, multi-modality handling, web browsing, and generally tool-use proficiency.
- GAIA questions are conceptually simple for humans yet challenging for most advanced AIs: we show that human respondents obtain 92% vs. 15% for GPT-4 equipped with plugins."
- This market will resolve based on when an AI system performs as well or better than humans on all 3 of the different levels of the benchmark.
- I'll use the numbers from Table 4 in paper: 93.9% on level 1, 91.8% on level 2, and 87.3% on level 3.
- (I'm using the conjunction of all 3 levels rather than the average to be somewhat conservative about this level being achieved.)