Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 95.1%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJan 5, 24, 10:59 AM UTCJan 12, 28, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?
Manifold MarketsBy 2029, AI can provide phone banking services as well as human operators, without annoying customers more than humans?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRules
Perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition—a math contest whose questions have known solutions, but which are difficult for the best young mathematicians
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt55.9%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.5%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.7M
- 24h Vol
- $118.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $51.6K
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 95% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition. resolve?
- By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition. is scheduled to resolve on January 12, 2028.
- How is By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition. settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition—a math contest whose questions have known solutions, but which are difficult for the best young mathematicians