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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese?
Manifold Markets

By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese?

One-OffAITechScience3y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
01.01.2026 0%
Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters

4

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Stale
Oct 10, 25, 11:00 AMJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

01.07.20266%

Rules

This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves based on whether, at each specified date, all SOTA reasoning models use non-token-based (’neuralese’) reasoning.
  • Neuralese Reasoning Definition
  • A reasoning model uses "neuralese reasoning" if the architecture allows some activation to sequentially go through at least some part of the network an arbitrary number of times without at some point being projected from a continuous multidimensional activation into a discrete state (like token IDs).
  • Specific Resolution Cases
  • Counts as neuralese reasoning: Tokens are generated but there is also a residual connection that feeds back continuous activations into earlier layers

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Rules

This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves based on whether, at each specified date, all SOTA reasoning models use non-token-based (’neuralese’) reasoning.
  • Neuralese Reasoning Definition
  • A reasoning model uses "neuralese reasoning" if the architecture allows some activation to sequentially go through at least some part of the network an arbitrary number of times without at some point being projected from a continuous multidimensional activation into a discrete state (like token IDs).
  • Specific Resolution Cases
  • Counts as neuralese reasoning: Tokens are generated but there is also a residual connection that feeds back continuous activations into earlier layers