Current community forecast
01.01.2030 80.5%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+11.6 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Oct 10, 25, 11:00 AMJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
Rules
This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring
- This market resolves based on whether, at each specified date, all SOTA reasoning models use non-token-based (’neuralese’) reasoning.
- Neuralese Reasoning Definition
- A reasoning model uses "neuralese reasoning" if the architecture allows some activation to sequentially go through at least some part of the network an arbitrary number of times without at some point being projected from a continuous multidimensional activation into a discrete state (like token IDs).
- Specific Resolution Cases
- Counts as neuralese reasoning: Tokens are generated but there is also a residual connection that feeds back continuous activations into earlier layers
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- October 31+0.1pt99%
- September 30-0.7pt98%
- September 25-0.3pt98%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $539.3K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.2pt58.6%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt24%
- Grok+1.5pt7.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.1M
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+9.2pt100%
- November 30,+6.8pt100%
- December 31,+5.5pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+34.9pt44%
- September 24+21.4pt23%
- September 17+21.1pt22%
+27 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-10.0pt76.5%
- ChatGPT+6.0pt16.7%
- Gemini+2.0pt2.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $173.4K
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703K
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- AI capability growth this year?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- When will any company achieve AGI?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese??
- Manifold Markets prices 01.01.2030 at 81% as of September 4, 2026.
- When does By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese? resolve?
- By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring