Current community forecast
No 89.4%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleOct 3, 26, 11:21 PM UTCDec 30, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which country will produce the first >1GW nuclear fusion power plant to return energy back to the grid?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
Manifold MarketsWill a new nuclear power plant be operational in Sweden by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the most numerous type of fusion power plant in 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Helion Energy have a power plant in operation by the end of 2028?
ForecastExWhen will nuclear fusion be achieved?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2035 (11:59 PM UTC), any nuclear fusion power plant has delivered a net electrical power output of at least 100 MW (megawatts electric, or MWe) averaged over a continuous 30-day period.
- Net electrical power is defined as the gross electrical power generated by the fusion facility minus the total recirculating (parasitic) electrical power consumed by the facility itself (e.g., for plasma heating, magnet cooling, cryogenics, and other support systems) to sustain operations.
- The power must be delivered either directly to a public electrical grid or to dedicated external end-users (e.g., commercial off-takers).
- 30-day average means the net power delivered must average at least 100 MW over a continuous 720-hour (30-day) window.
- For facilities operating in pulsed modes, the net electrical power exported must still average at least 100 MW over the 30-day period when accounting for both the pulses and the intervening non-operational periods.
