Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 77.9%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 2, 24, 9:24 PM UTCJan 1, 01, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Where will this paper be accepted? (Do Black Holes Exist? by Modesto, Rattu)
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KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRules
Naked sigulaeiries are theoretically possible in our current model of physics and spinning black holes.
- However, many physicists believe something must exist to make these types of singularities impossible.
- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naked_singularity
- A great video on the topic:
- https://youtu.be/1Z5fnwUmTSY?si=PG5bfkFyOKLB_FQT
- (https://www.youtube.com/embed/1Z5fnwUmTSY?si=PG5bfkFyOKLB_FQT)This market resolves to YES if definitive evidence arises of an actual naked singularity.
Open markets
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+2 more outcomes
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- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
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+5 more outcomes
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+1 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Are naked singularities from spinning black holes physically possible??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 78% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Are naked singularities from spinning black holes physically possible? resolve?
- Are naked singularities from spinning black holes physically possible? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2101.
- How is Are naked singularities from spinning black holes physically possible? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Naked sigulaeiries are theoretically possible in our current model of physics and spinning black holes.