Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 75.6%
Forecasters
74
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 23 hours ago
StaleJun 26, 26, 7:51 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES iff there is a successful AI-assisted, or autonomously AI executed, cyber attack on the real-time gross settlement system (eg Fedwire in the US, Europe's T2) of any OECD country by January 1st 2028.
- The qualifying attack should result in the settlement system going offline for at least two hours, and must be the result of a deliberate attack by a third party that uses AI as a major part of the attack, or is itself an AI, according to credible reporting.
- Disruptions attributable to human error or internal operational failures do not count.
