Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77.1%
Forecasters
71
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJun 26, 26, 7:51 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Resolves YES iff there is a successful AI-assisted, or autonomously AI executed, cyber attack on the real-time gross settlement system (eg Fedwire in the US, Europe's T2) of any OECD country by January 1st 2028.
- The qualifying attack should result in the settlement system going offline for at least two hours, and must be the result of a deliberate attack by a third party that uses AI as a major part of the attack, or is itself an AI, according to credible reporting.
- Disruptions attributable to human error or internal operational failures do not count.
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for AI takes down a major payment system by EOY 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 77% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does AI takes down a major payment system by EOY 2027? resolve?
- AI takes down a major payment system by EOY 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is AI takes down a major payment system by EOY 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES iff there is a successful AI-assisted, or autonomously AI executed, cyber attack on the real-time gross settlement system (eg Fedwire in the US, Europe's T2) of any OECD country by January 1st 2028.