KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 4.7% or above (31%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 2, 2026, 10:16 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
4.7% or above33%
4.68% or above54%
4.74% or above17%
4.72% or above24%
4.66% or above79%
4.76% or above1%
4.78% or above1%
4.8% or above0%
4.82% or above0%
4.84% or above0%
4.86% or above0%
4.88% or above0%
4.9% or above0%
4.92% or above0%
4.94% or above0%
4.66% or aboveLost
Before close: 79% ·
4.68% or aboveLost
Before close: 54% ·
4.7% or aboveWon
Before close: 31% ·
4.74% or aboveLost
Before close: 17% ·
4.72% or aboveLost
Before close: 11% ·
4.76% or aboveLost
Before close: 2% ·
4.78% or aboveLost
Before close: 2% ·
4.8% or aboveLost
Before close: 2% ·
4.82% or aboveLost
Before close: 0% ·
4.84% or aboveLost
Before close: 0% ·
4.86% or aboveLost
Before close: 0% ·
4.88% or aboveLost
Before close: 0% ·
4.9% or aboveLost
Before close: 0% ·
4.92% or aboveLost
Before close: 0% ·
4.94% or aboveLost
Before close: 0% ·
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Rules
If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.69% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Nov 2, 2026, or one week following Nov 2, 2026.
Rules for each outcome
- 4.66% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.65% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.68% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.67% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.7% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.69% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.74% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.73% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.72% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.71% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.76% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.75% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.78% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.77% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.8% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.79% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.82% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.81% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.84% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.83% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.86% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.85% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.88% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.87% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.9% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.89% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.92% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.91% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.94% or above
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.93% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.