KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 6.3% 71.7%Leader of 10 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
21 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$243
Low liquiditySpread
10.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Aug 28, 26, 3:15 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 7:50 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the Germany unemployment rate is above 5.9% for September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Trading Economics
- If the Germany unemployment rate is above 6.0% for September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Germany unemployment rate is above 6.1% for September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Germany unemployment rate is above 6.2% for September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Germany unemployment rate is above 6.3% for September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Germany unemployment rate is above 6.4% for September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt63.4%
- No change-9.0pt35.6%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $112.2M
- 24h Vol
- $6.3M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $772.5K
- 24h Vol
- $109.2K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $449.8K
- 24h Vol
- $31.7K
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-10.0pt80%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-20.0pt60%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-6.0pt30%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $34.1K
KALSHIState of the economy at the end of 2026
- Soft landing-5.7pt49.5%
- Overheating+13.7pt45.8%
- Stagflation-2.6pt2.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $94.6K
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- US government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in 2034?
- China unemployment rate in August
- GDP growth in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Recession this year?
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Germany unemployment rate in September?
- Kalshi prices Above 6.3% at 72% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Germany unemployment rate in September resolve?
- Germany unemployment rate in September is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Germany unemployment rate in September settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Germany unemployment rate is above 5.9% for September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.