KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
38.2% 91.6%+27.0ptLeader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
38.2% 91.6%+27.0ptMarket quality
85 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$284.5K
Open interest
$162.8K
High open interestSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Oct 2, 26, 2:01 PM UTCOct 3, 26, 4:59 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 4, 2026?
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PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRules
If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.2% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:RealClearPolitics
- The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.
Rules for each outcome
- 38.2%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.2% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.1%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.1% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Below 38.0%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is below 38.0% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.3%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.3% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.0%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.0% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 38.6%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is above 38.6% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.6%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.6% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.4%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.4% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.5%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.5% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.