KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Claude 75.2%+5.0ptLeader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$12.3K
Liquidity
$21.8K
Medium liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Aug 31, 26, 5:30 PMSep 30, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Rules
If Claude is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Sep 30, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LMArena Code
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.
- If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If Qwen is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Sep 30, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- October 31+0.9pt100%
- September 30+0.9pt100%
- September 15+1.3pt99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.4M
- 24h Vol
- $699.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-4.9pt58.3%
- ChatGPT+6.2pt24.1%
- Grok+1.0pt7.4%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.2M
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+13.7pt20.8%
- September 5+15.3pt16.7%
- September 6+13.2pt14.6%
+27 more outcomes
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+5.8pt100%
- November 30,+3.6pt100%
- December 31,+3.8pt100%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
- Before 2027+6.0pt99%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $705.1K
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-12.0pt71.2%
- ChatGPT+8.0pt20.2%
- Gemini2.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $185.6K
- 24h Vol
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Which companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- When will any company achieve AGI?
- AI capability growth this year?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai)?
- Kalshi prices Claude at 75% as of September 4, 2026.
- When does Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai) resolve?
- Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai) is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai) settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Claude is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Sep 30, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.