KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Claude (99%)
Resolved: Sep 30, 2026, 2:43 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 30, 2026, 1:46 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Claude99%
ChatGPT2%
ClaudeWon
GrokLost
QwenLost
ChatGPTLost
DolaLost
GLMLost
KimiLost
GeminiLost
MiniMaxLost
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Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If Claude is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Sep 30, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LMArena Code
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.
- If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If Qwen is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Sep 30, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
