When will CMS announce the addition of GLP-1 drugs for obesity to Part D?
4.0 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-Off1y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jan 20, 2029 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 20, 2029 Stored bid–ask50%–53%Collected: Last trade: 53% · Trade time unknownPrices are percentages of payout, before fees; these stored observations are not executable quotes.Leader of 3 outcomes
Before Jan 20, 2029 Stored bid–ask50%–53%Collected: Last trade: 53% · Trade time unknownPrices are percentages of payout, before fees; these stored observations are not executable quotes.Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$9.2
Open interest
$5.4K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before Jan 20, 2029Spread
—
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Aug 24, 26, 2:00 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 20, 2029
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PolymarketRules
If CMS announces the addition of GLP-1 drugs for obesity to Part D before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- GLP-1 drugs are already covered under Part D for type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular risk reduction and obstructive sleep apnea. Those indications are outside this market, which turns on coverage for obesity or chronic weight management. Only a completed CMS action that provides the coverage counts, such as a final rule, a finalized model design, or guidance to Part D sponsors through the Health Plan Management System. Where the White House or HHS makes the determination, the CMS document adopting it resolves this market, on the date of that document. The following do NOT resolve this market to YES: A CMS communication that discusses, studies or reports on such coverage. A proposed rule or a request for applications, which propose coverage rather than provide it. An action that considers the change and declines to make it. The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge, or extending or replacing it, because it sits outside the Part D benefit. An announcement covering only the Medicaid portion of the BALANCE Model. Coverage of a single drug, or of a subset of Part D enrollees, is sufficient. The announcement date governs, not the date coverage takes effect.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 20, 2029
- If CMS announces the addition of GLP-1 drugs for obesity to Part D before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If CMS announces the addition of GLP-1 drugs for obesity to Part D before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If CMS announces the addition of GLP-1 drugs for obesity to Part D before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.