KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 49.4% (99%)
Resolved: Oct 17, 2026, 4:45 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 17, 2026, 1:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 55.1%28%
Above 56.1%1%
Above 67.0%1%
Above 61.6%7%
Above 49.4%Won
Above 56.1%Lost
Above 61.6%Lost
Above 65.5%Lost
Above 55.1%Lost
Above 69.0%Lost
Above 69.7%Lost
Above 67.0%Lost
Above 73.8%Lost
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PolymarketRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Oct 16, 2026 is above 49.4%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Vercel AI Gateway Leaderboards
- This event resolves using the Open Weights percentage in Vercel AI Gateway's Open vs. Closed Token Volume chart.
- At 10:00 AM ET on Oct 17, 2026, Kalshi will use the chart's updated value for Oct 16, 2026.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with Vercel.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If the Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Oct 16, 2026 is above 55.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.