KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 0.5% 84%Leader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
29 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$0.1
Low liquiditySpread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Aug 6, 26, 10:00 PM UTCJan 28, 31, 1:29 PM UTC
Trends
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US nominal GDP growth in 2036
KalshiUS nominal GDP growth in 2035
KalshiUS nominal GDP growth in 2034
KalshiWill AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the US be the largest economy by nominal gdp in 2052?
Manifold MarketsUS nominal GDP growth in 2033
KalshiRules
If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2030 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
- The Underlying is the 2030 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “GDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2030,” or its equivalent successor publication.
- The value will be taken as reported by BEA, in percentage terms and to the precision published by BEA.
- Subsequent estimates, revisions, annual updates, or benchmark revisions will not affect resolution.
- If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2030 is above 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2030 is above 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629.4K
- 24h Vol
- $36K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
- 24h Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No81%
- Yes-6.0pt19%
- Total Vol
- $360.5K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
- $711.9K
- 24h Vol
- $8K
- Recession this year?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US nominal GDP growth in 2030?
- Kalshi prices Above 0.5% at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does US nominal GDP growth in 2030 resolve?
- US nominal GDP growth in 2030 is scheduled to resolve on January 28, 2031.
- How is US nominal GDP growth in 2030 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2030 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.