KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 7:53 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Above -8% · —
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Stored price
Above -8% 50%Leader of 11 outcomes
Above -8% 50%Market quality
13 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$0
Open interest unknownBid / Ask
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Above -8%Spread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 28, 26, 2:15 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 11:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Above -8%
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the percentage change in the seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index in the first MBA Weekly Applications Survey release after market Issuance is above -8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Mortgage Bankers Association
- The Underlying is the first-published percentage change in MBA’s seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index in the first new Weekly Applications Survey results release after market Issuance. All strikes use the same release, including strikes added later. The reported change is used directly, including holiday adjustments and regardless of the comparison period; no calculation is required. If separate changes are reported for multiple reference weeks, the latest reference week controls. Increases are positive, decreases negative, and unchanged is 0%. “Above” means strictly greater than the strike. Later revisions, corrections, and subsequent releases are ignored. If publication is delayed, trading remains closed pending the qualifying release, subject to the latest expiration and the contract’s missing-data provisions.
Rules for each outcome
- Above -8%
- If the percentage change in the seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index in the first MBA Weekly Applications Survey release after market Issuance is above -8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -10%
- If the percentage change in the seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index in the first MBA Weekly Applications Survey release after market Issuance is above -10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -6%
- If the percentage change in the seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index in the first MBA Weekly Applications Survey release after market Issuance is above -6%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -4%
- If the percentage change in the seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index in the first MBA Weekly Applications Survey release after market Issuance is above -4%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -2%
- If the percentage change in the seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index in the first MBA Weekly Applications Survey release after market Issuance is above -2%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0%
- If the percentage change in the seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index in the first MBA Weekly Applications Survey release after market Issuance is above 0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 2%
- If the percentage change in the seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index in the first MBA Weekly Applications Survey release after market Issuance is above 2%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4%
- If the percentage change in the seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index in the first MBA Weekly Applications Survey release after market Issuance is above 4%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 6%
- If the percentage change in the seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index in the first MBA Weekly Applications Survey release after market Issuance is above 6%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 8%
- If the percentage change in the seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index in the first MBA Weekly Applications Survey release after market Issuance is above 8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 10%
- If the percentage change in the seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index in the first MBA Weekly Applications Survey release after market Issuance is above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
