KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 76%
Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.2K
Liquidity
$1.3K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
25.0% / 36.0%
Spread
11.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Sep 13, 26, 8:00 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Republic of Ireland agrees to or announces a formal government decision to hold a national referendum in the Republic of Ireland on Irish reunification before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
- Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies
- Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.
- The following do NOT qualify:
- Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum??
- Kalshi prices No at 76% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum? resolve?
- Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Republic of Ireland agrees to or announces a formal government decision to hold a national referendum in the Republic of Ireland on Irish reunification before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.