KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Green Party (99%)
Resolved: Oct 9, 2026, 5:08 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Green Party
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
88%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 9, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Reform UK2%
Labour Party3%
Green Party86%
Green PartyWon
Reform UKLost
Labour PartyLost
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the named outcome finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:London Borough of Camden
- Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage
- In case of an exact tie for second place, markets resolve to $1/(number of tied entities), rounded down.
- A write-in candidate achieving the specified rank resolves all named candidate or party markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" market exists.
- Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received.
- Resolution follows the London Borough of Camden's final certified result, not preliminary election-night results.
