KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Oct 1, 2026 20%
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$600
Liquidity
$2.3K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 8.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 25 minutes ago
Aug 11, 26, 5:12 PMSep 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Rules
If David Hearn has been formally charged with any charge related to the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool crime in federal after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:BloombergABCThe InformationMSNBCCBSNBCNPRReutersAxiosBBCThe Washington PostCNNThe Wall Street JournalSemaforthe Associated Pressthe New York TimesPolitico
- Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court.
- Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges.
- Traffic violations that don't require court appearances and sealed charges that remain sealed through the deadline also don't count.
- If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes.
- Pre-trial diversion agreements involving formal charges count as charges.
Open markets
Crime & Justice
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
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- September 30-8.0pt14.4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.4M
- 24h Vol
- $36K
KALSHIWho will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Anthony Fauci+6.0pt54%
- John Brennan-5.0pt32%
- Letitia James26%
+38 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.4M
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $11.7K
KALSHIWho will be arrested in 2026?
- John Brennan+4.0pt28%
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero23%
- Mahmoud Khalil+5.0pt22%
+21 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
POLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+7.5pt56%
- Yes-7.5pt44%
- Total Vol
- $300.4K
- 24h Vol
- $5.7K
POLYMARKETWho will be arrested before 2027?
- Mahmoud Khalil+0.5pt32%
- John Brennan26%
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero18%
+21 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
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- Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
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- Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- Yoon out of custody before 2027?
- Maduro Prison Time?
- Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will David Hearn be charged again in connection with the Reflecting Pool??
- Kalshi prices Before Oct 1, 2026 at 20% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Will David Hearn be charged again in connection with the Reflecting Pool? resolve?
- Will David Hearn be charged again in connection with the Reflecting Pool? is scheduled to resolve on September 1, 2026.
- How is Will David Hearn be charged again in connection with the Reflecting Pool? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If David Hearn has been formally charged with any charge related to the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool crime in federal after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.