KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above -0.2% 95%Leader of 7 outcomes
Above -0.2% 95%Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$12.5
Low open interestSpread
24.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Sep 24, 26, 9:00 PM UTCOct 14, 26, 12:29 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Core CPI MoM - September 2026
PolymarketSeptember 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core
KalshiArgentina inflation rate MoM for September
KalshiSouth Africa inflation rate MoM for September
KalshiPPI MoM in September
KalshiWill there be nationwide price controls or rationing of consumer goods by 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 is above -0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:BLS - CPI-U
- “Core goods CPI” means “Commodities less food and energy commodities” in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), U.S. city average, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Resolution uses the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change for September 2026 published in the first BLS CPI release reporting that month’s data, at its published precision. The value will not be recalculated from index levels. Subsequent revisions, including revisions to seasonal adjustments, will not affect resolution.
Rules for each outcome
- Above -0.2%
- If the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 is above -0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above -0.1%
- If the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 is above -0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.0%
- If the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.1%
- If the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 is above 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.2%
- If the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 is above 0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.3%
- If the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 is above 0.3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.4%
- If the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for September 2026 is above 0.4%, then the market resolves to Yes.