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Data as of Sep 11, 2026, 2:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Above 1430 0%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
92.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Sep 10, 26, 10:30 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score
KalshiGPT 6 Astra debut arena score
KalshiWill any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?
PolymarketWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
PolymarketWill any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?
PolymarketIf Fable 5.1 is listed on arena.ai on September 14th will it have a higher agent arena score than Fable 5?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Grok 4.7 scores the named outcome on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) Before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
- If multiple qualifying models are added, the highest scoring model will be used for resolution.
- Models added following the initial qualifying model will not count.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+12.5pt89%
- 2026+22.0pt71%
- September 30, 2026+19.0pt43%
- Total Vol
- $145.2K
- 24h Vol
- $62K
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture+8.0pt42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer-1.0pt25.7%
- Yang-Mills+13.8pt15.2%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+33.0pt90%
- 2026+40.0pt72%
- September 30, 2026+21.0pt35%
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-23.0pt38%
- 2027-1.0pt17%
- 2026-1.0pt6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt62.8%
- ChatGPT-0.2pt20.6%
- Gemini-0.9pt6.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.7M
- Anthropic market share this week
- Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- Tencent market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Grok 4.7 debut arena score?
- Kalshi prices Above 1430 at 0% as of September 11, 2026.
- When does Grok 4.7 debut arena score resolve?
- Grok 4.7 debut arena score is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Grok 4.7 debut arena score settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Grok 4.7 scores the named outcome on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) Before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.