KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo trading activity
Data as of Sep 11, 2026, 2:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Above 1460 0%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
92.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Sep 10, 26, 10:30 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score
KalshiGrok 4.7 debut arena score
KalshiGPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
PolymarketWill any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?
PolymarketWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
PolymarketWhich models will GPT-6 Astra be higher than on arena.ai agent arena on the 12th September?
Manifold MarketsRules
If GPT 6 Astra scores the named outcome on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) Before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
- If multiple qualifying models are added, the highest scoring model will be used for resolution.
- Models added following the initial qualifying model will not count.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+12.5pt89%
- 2026+22.0pt71%
- September 30, 2026+19.0pt43%
- Total Vol
- $145.2K
- 24h Vol
- $62K
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture+8.0pt42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer-1.0pt25.7%
- Yang-Mills+13.8pt15.2%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+33.0pt90%
- 2026+40.0pt72%
- September 30, 2026+21.0pt35%
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-23.0pt38%
- 2027-1.0pt17%
- 2026-1.0pt6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt62.8%
- ChatGPT-0.2pt20.6%
- Gemini-0.9pt6.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.7M
- Anthropic market share this week
- Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- Tencent market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for GPT 6 Astra debut arena score?
- Kalshi prices Above 1460 at 0% as of September 11, 2026.
- When does GPT 6 Astra debut arena score resolve?
- GPT 6 Astra debut arena score is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is GPT 6 Astra debut arena score settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If GPT 6 Astra scores the named outcome on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) Before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.