KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2027 14%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2K
Liquidity
$1.1K
Low liquiditySpread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 17, 26, 12:00 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWhich bills will become law in 2026?
PolymarketRules
If federal legislation imposing an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care has become law after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A qualifying federal law must impose an enforceable standard requiring AI developers or deployers to take reasonable care, or equivalent precautions, to prevent or mitigate catastrophic harm from their models or systems.
- This means large-scale harm such as mass casualties, major disruption of critical infrastructure, or comparably severe economic or environmental damage; the law need not use the exact phrase "duty of care".
- Requiring a framework, audit, report, or shutdown control alone is insufficient.
- A framework qualifies only when the law makes the adequacy of the developer's precautions against catastrophic harm an enforceable obligation.
- Government enforcement or civil liability may enforce the duty.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-3.5pt84.6%
- Moonshot+4.7pt10.6%
- Z.ai+0.3pt1.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $471.2K
- 24h Vol
- $64.9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.3pt69.3%
- ChatGPT-0.1pt15.8%
- Gemini+0.1pt6.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.2M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt87%
- December 15,+0.5pt84%
- November 30,+6.0pt79%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%91%
- Above 4.5%+19.0pt41%
- Above 5.6%+10.0pt20%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $67K
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 22.7%99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 23.6%-1.0pt95%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $80.4K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 14–20
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Anthropic market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 1, 2027 at 14% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law? resolve?
- When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If federal legislation imposing an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care has become law after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.