KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 10:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Above -0.1% · —
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Stored price
Above -0.1% 90%Leader of 7 outcomes
Above -0.1% 90%Market quality
10 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$3
Open interest
$561
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Above -0.1%Spread
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Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 1, 26, 11:00 PM UTCNov 6, 26, 1:29 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Above -0.1%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
If the U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026, measured as the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, is above -0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Resolution will use the monthly percentage change in average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls stated in the initial Employment Situation release for the reference month. The measure is seasonally adjusted and is not adjusted for inflation. The percentage change will be used at BLS’s published precision, rather than recalculated from the hourly earnings dollar amounts. Subsequent revisions will not affect the outcome.
Rules for each outcome
- Above -0.1%
- If the U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026, measured as the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, is above -0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.0%
- If the U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026, measured as the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.1%
- If the U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026, measured as the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, is above 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.2%
- If the U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026, measured as the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, is above 0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.3%
- If the U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026, measured as the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, is above 0.3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.4%
- If the U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026, measured as the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, is above 0.4%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 0.5%
- If the U.S. average hourly earnings growth for October 2026, measured as the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, is above 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.