KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 4.78% (99%)
Resolved: Oct 27, 2026, 9:01 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Above 4.78%
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 7:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 4.78%99%
Above 4.79%99%
Above 4.75%0%
Above 4.76%0%
Above 4.77%0%
Above 4.80%0%
Above 4.81%96%
Above 4.82%0%
Above 4.83%0%
Above 4.84%0%
Above 4.85%0%
Above 4.86%0%
Above 4.87%0%
Above 4.88%0%
Above 4.89%0%
Above 4.78%Won
Above 4.79%Lost
Above 4.81%Lost
Above 4.75%Lost
Above 4.76%Lost
Above 4.77%Lost
Above 4.80%Lost
Above 4.82%Lost
Above 4.83%Lost
Above 4.84%Lost
Above 4.85%Lost
Above 4.86%Lost
Above 4.87%Lost
Above 4.88%Lost
Above 4.89%Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?
PolymarketWill the US treasury "be put on the blockchain" by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Treasury issue a new General License authorizing broad oil operations in Venezuela in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill US 10-year treasury yield exceed 6 percent before 2028?
Manifold MarketsHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
PolymarketMacro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.78% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Pyth - 5Y UST
- Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike. Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 4.78%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.78% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.79%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.79% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.81%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.81% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.75%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.75% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.76%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.76% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.77%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.77% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.80%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.80% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.82%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.82% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.83%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.83% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.84%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.84% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.85%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.85% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.86%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.86% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.87%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.87% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.88%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.88% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4.89%
- If the Pyth security yield for the 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.89% at Oct 27, 2026 at 4:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes.