KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: No
Resolved: Oct 23, 2026, 5:15 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale dataNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Trends
NoWon
YesLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
PolymarketHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Polymarket10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026?
Manifold Markets10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.0%+ on 12/31/2026?
Manifold MarketsMacro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the close yield (%) of the 1-minute Pyth candlestick for 2-year U.S. Treasury ending at 1:15 PM EDT on Oct 23, 2026 is at least 4.68738, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Pyth - 2Y UST
- The market resolves based on the closing yield of the one-minute Pyth candlestick for 2-year U.S. Treasury ending at 1:15 PM EDT on Oct 23, 2026.
- The 2-year U.S. Treasury refers to the US2Y, the current on-the-run benchmark of the 2-year U.S. Treasury Note as identified on the Source Agency.
- Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.
- The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 5 decimal places.
- Yields are expressed as annualized percentages.