Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseEnd of 2026 10%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet15. Sept. 26, 04:23 UTC31. Jan. 27, 04:21 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Hezbollah disarm by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketWill Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market will resolve identically to this one, on Polymarket: Will Hamas agree to disarm by November 30?
- Polymarket rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
- For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
- Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Vergleich von Prognosequellen
- Auch verfügbar auf Futuur — Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? · December 31 22%
- Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket — Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? · December 31, 9%