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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Geopolitik
  3. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

1.3% (24h)One-OffGeopolitikMiddle East18T
PolymarketPolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
September 30
September 30 34%+5.0%
Führend unter 7 Optionen
Marktqualitat

89 / 100

Hohe Qualität
24h-Volumen

151.707,7 €

Liquidität

165.047,8 €

Hohe Liquidität
Geld / Brief

13.0% / 13.8%

Spread

6.2%

Mittlerer Spread
7d-Änderung

+6.5%

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 3 Minuten

16. März 26, 18:4430. Juni 26, 0:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit
March 31
March 31
0%
April 30
April 30
0%

Gewähltes Ergebnis

September 3034%

Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
  • If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
  • Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying.
  • Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.

Verwandte Märkte

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

3,8 Mio. €
December 31: 68%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

713.853,7 €
Ja: 2%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Iran closes its airspace by...?

Iran closes its airspace by...?

612.445,2 €
December 31: 79%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

4587,3 €
Ja: 1.2%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)

1856,4 €
3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm): 100%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
US-Iran nuclear deal?

US-Iran nuclear deal?

750,5 €
Before July: 8%KalshiKALSHI

In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$62,701.00+1.92%EthereumETH$1,652.96+1.39%SolanaSOL$65.13+0.87%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.19%XRPXRP$1.12-0.28%BNBBNB$595.50+1.31%

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Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
  • If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
  • Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying.
  • Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.