PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitDecember 31 79%-2.5%Führend unter 12 Optionen
Marktqualitat
73 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
612.445,2 €
Liquidität
64.668,6 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
1.2% / 2.1%
Spread
75.0%
Breiter SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Minuten
Trends
Gewähltes Ergebnis
December 3179%
Verwandte Märkte
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
3,8 Mio. €December 31: 68%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
3,3 Mio. €July 31: 56%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
812.380 €June 30: 31%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
4587,3 €Ja: 1.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)
1856,4 €3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm): 100%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
US-Iran nuclear deal?
752,4 €Before July: 8%
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between June 9, 2026, 3:00 PM ET and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region.
- A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region.
- Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify.
- Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).