Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
One-OffGeopolitikMiddle East5MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 04.06.2026, 02:24 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-2
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 1.2%
Prognostiker
27
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Aktualisiert vor 52 Tagen
Veraltet22. März 26, 1:1231. Dez. 26, 23:59
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a ballistic missile or cruise missile launched from Iranian territory strikes London (or its metropolitan area) by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) confirming a direct hit on London.
- The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.
- Iran fired missiles towards the UK-US base on Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Islands, which is about 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran about the same distance from Iran to London.
- Iran's missile range reaches the capitals of Europe — Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range.