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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Geopolitik
  3. Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
Manifold Markets

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

One-OffGeopolitikMiddle East6Mon
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsKein KYC
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Manifold Markets
Ja 1.2%
Prognostiker

27

Fragetyp

multiple choice

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 7 Tagen

Veraltet
22. März 26, 1:1231. Dez. 26, 23:59

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Yes1%

Regeln

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves YES if a ballistic missile or cruise missile launched from Iranian territory strikes London (or its metropolitan area) by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
  • Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) confirming a direct hit on London.
  • The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.
  • Iran fired missiles towards the UK-US base on Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Islands, which is about 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran about the same distance from Iran to London.
  • Iran's missile range reaches the capitals of Europe — Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range.

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In diesen Themen aktiv

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Regeln

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves YES if a ballistic missile or cruise missile launched from Iranian territory strikes London (or its metropolitan area) by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
  • Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) confirming a direct hit on London.
  • The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.
  • Iran fired missiles towards the UK-US base on Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Islands, which is about 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran about the same distance from Iran to London.
  • Iran's missile range reaches the capitals of Europe — Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range.