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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Commodities
  3. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

CommoditiesOne-OffGeopolitikMiddle East2Mon
PolymarketPolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
August 31
August 31 26%
Führend unter 5 Optionen
Marktqualitat

73 / 100

Mittlere Qualität
24h-Volumen

268.826,8 €

Liquidität

654.082,1 €

Hohe Liquidität
Geld / Brief

20.0% / 22.0%

Spread

10.0%

Breiter Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten

21. Juni 26, 21:4131. Aug. 26, 23:59

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung

Gewähltes Ergebnis

August 3126%

Regeln

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics.

Polymarket
  • This market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran has been mutually signed or adopted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
  • Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”
  • Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran.
  • Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions.
  • Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures.

Verwandte Märkte

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

40.037,5 €
December 31: 14%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US-Iran nuclear deal?

US-Iran nuclear deal?

1014,8 €
Before July: 2%KalshiKALSHI
Nothing Ever Happens: June

Nothing Ever Happens: June

643,7 €
Something: 2%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?

262,2 €
Ja: 85.2%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will there be a food shortage related to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz?

253,5 €
Ja: 57%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will US average gas price reach … in June 2026?

220,7 €
$4.400 or higher?: 1%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$64,452.29+0.59%EthereumETH$1,733.62+0.43%SolanaSOL$72.81-1.79%DogecoinDOGE$0.0831-0.23%XRPXRP$1.13-0.67%BNBBNB$593.68+0.65%

Verwandte Nachrichten

Iran re-closes Hormuz as Polymarket Yes odds tick up to 2.55%Blockchain.NewsIran closes Hormuz again as talks restart, Polymarket Yes dips to 39.5%Blockchain.NewsTrump floats Hormuz tolls as Polymarket Petro-out odds slip to 51.5%Blockchain.NewsIran, US clash on Hormuz status as Polymarket prices 58.5% No by July 31Blockchain.NewsIran Threatens Strait of Hormuz Closure Again: Crypto Markets Face an Energy Shock TestBlockchain ReporterLebanon ceasefire tested as Polymarket puts Hormuz normalization at 6.5%Blockchain.News

Regeln

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics.

Polymarket
  • This market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran has been mutually signed or adopted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
  • Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”
  • Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran.
  • Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions.
  • Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures.