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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Geopolitik
  3. Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

0.3% (24h)One-OffGeopolitikRussia / Ukraine6Mon
PolymarketPolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
December 31
December 31 33%-2.0%
Führend unter 4 Optionen
Marktqualitat

89 / 100

Hohe Qualität
24h-Volumen

8835 €

Liquidität

162.562,9 €

Hohe Liquidität
Geld / Brief

2.8% / 3.0%

Spread

7.1%

Mittlerer Spread
7d-Änderung

+0.7%

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 4 Minuten

16. Mai 26, 1:3131. Dez. 26, 0:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit
May 31
May 31
0%

Gewähltes Ergebnis

December 3133%

Regeln

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
  • A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
  • Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
  • Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.

Verwandte Märkte

US x Russia military clash by...?

US x Russia military clash by...?

48.785,8 €
December 31,: 5%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

17.040,9 €
December 31: 46%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

14.835,6 €
Ja: 8%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug 2026?

129,9 €
Ja: 19%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Which country will build the first Military Space Station?

116,9 €
USA: 45.4%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?

65 €
Ja: 13.8%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$62,612.98+1.75%EthereumETH$1,652.45+1.40%SolanaSOL$65.11+0.90%DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+1.09%XRPXRP$1.12-0.25%BNBBNB$595.56+1.31%

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Regeln

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
  • A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
  • Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
  • Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.